English Riviera BID Volume and Value Performance 2011-2019

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Visitor estimates are calculated using the Cambridge Model.  The Cambridge Model is a computer-based model developed to calculate estimates of the volume, value and economic impact of tourism on a County or District basis.  It draws on the combined experience of PA Cambridge Economic Consultants Ltd, Geoff Broom Associates and the former Regional Tourist Boards and utilises a standard methodology capable of application throughout the UK. The approach was the subject of independent validation (R.Vaughan, Bournemouth University) in December 1994. The Model was judged robust and the margins of error acceptable and in line with other modelling techniques.  More recently the model was also recognised as suitable for modelling tourism activity by the ONS Tourism Intelligence Unit.

Since the changes in tourism structures in 2011 the model is now operated under license by four commercial providers in the UK.  The South West Research Company Ltd is the only provider with access to the South West specific model which has been used in the region and Devon and districts historically and the company directors have been operating the model for approximately 18 years. The model is used across many different UK regions and has been used in the South West for more than 20 years.

The model utilises information from national tourism surveys and regionally/locally based data.  It distributes regional staying visitor activity as measured in those surveys to local areas using ‘drivers’ such as the accommodation stock and occupancy which influence the distribution of tourism activity at local level.  For day visits different local ‘drivers’ such as attraction footfall, quality and size of countryside and coastline are factored into the model to distribute trips.

Visitor Statistics 2010-2018

Download spreadsheet of visitor statistics for the English Riviera from 2010-2018

Key Trends 2011-2018

Conclusions

Overall, the performance of the English Riviera should be viewed positively over a difficult period for the tourism industry in which a number of factors such as the economy, political uncertainty and spells of extreme weather have all appeared to have impacted upon tourism levels.

When attempting to analyse tourism performance the larger context always needs to be considered and just looking at visitor numbers to a destination in isolation will never portray a true reflection as large numbers of visits will always occur or be deterred naturally by things such as the weather, economy and personal circumstances.  Considering all of these factors the relative stability shown in the resort could indeed be viewed as a success and it is likely that this is linked to local investment in supporting the tourism product in the bay to retain existing visitors and influence additional new visitors, without which the picture could have indeed been very different.

Whilst not yet available at a county level, regional staying visitor estimates for 2019 to date appear to suggest that tourism levels are likely be slightly lower than those experienced in 2018 overall.